WHICH STATE IN NEW ENGLAND IS RECOVERING FIRST FROM THE RECESSION?

Chart I below shows the growth in number of people with jobs from May of last year to May of this year. New Hampshire's growth at 1.6 percent is way above any other state in this region as well as being far better than the barely positive US figure of 0.2 percent. Chart II shows that our unemployment rate at 4 percent is the lowest in the region and well below the national 5.5 percent rate.
Finally, Chart III shows the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia's index (as reported by the Boston Bank) of economic activity for each of the New England states and the nation. At nearly 200, the index for New Hampshire is far and away the region's highest and is also 24 percent above the national index.

Source for Charts I, II and III: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

If any state is going to recover in a timely fashion from this recession and reverse the decline in home sales, it's going to be New Hampshire. From a pricing point of view, the recovery may already be in progress. Median home price for residences statewide have risen steadily for the past four months and are now 11 percent above what they were in February.
For the first half of this year, the statewide median home price is still 8 percent below the first half of last year. That's way below the national drop, and at our current rate of climb, prices here should be in positive territory by the end of the year.
Nevertheless, only 1,127 residential properties and 281 condominiums were sold statewide in June and those sales were respectively 20 percent and 38 percent below the sales for June of last year. So prices may be slowly rising, but closing a sale is harder. The home next door to ours, for example, just sold after nearly three years on the market, to the great relief of everyone involved. Perhaps it's a harbinger of better future buyer activity.

NH residential (non-condominium) sales

County
Units sold YTD
% change 2007-08
Median
price YTD
% change 2007-08
Average price YTD
% change 2007-08

Belknap
272
-21%
$220,000
-7%
$330,681
-8%

Carroll
288
-16%
$203,000
-10%
$302,620
-8%

Cheshire
278
-19%
$187,000
-11%
$228,800
-1%

Coos
125
-23%
$105,000
-7%
$131,672
-6%

Grafton
295
-31%
$200,000
-8%
$265,241
-3%

Hillsborough
1,260
-22%
$252,000
-10%
$287,427
-8%

Merrimack
460
-29%
$225,000
-9%
$257,145
-5%

Rockingham
1,075
-17%
$295,500
-6%
$351,741
-3%

Strafford
423
-25%
$223,000
-11%
$246,397
-8%

Sullivan
172
-22%
$166,500
-12%
$220,162
-3%

Statewide
4,648
-22%
$241,000
-8%
$287,451
-5%

MASS & NORTH SHORE HOME SALES

MAR reported that both single-family home sales and condominium sales were down 14.9 percent and 20.3 percent respectively in June compared to the same time last year. On a month-to-month basis, both single-family sales and condominium sales continue to go up. Listings and months of supply are down compared to the same time last year.



In the second quarter of 2008, single family homes sales were down 13.7% and condominium sales were down 23.6%. "While we were hoping to see the trend of narrowing sales declines we experienced in April and May, that just didn't happen in June, " said MAR President, Susan M. Renfrew. "However, median prices are at their highest in several months, while the number of homes for sale and months of supply are continuing to come down, meaning demand for those properties can start to increase.



MA Detached Single-family Home Sales and Median Selling Prices

2007 2008 % Change

12,184 10,518 -13.7

355,000 325,000 -8.5%




MA Condominium Sales and Median Selling Prices

February 2007 February 2008 % Change

6,283 4,802 -23.6%

287,500 265,000 - 0.9%